Three key trends that could spell a breakthrough for Mariners offense (2024)

The goal remains the same for the Mariners offense —just be average.

And guess what?

They’re just about there.

Through their first 58 games, the Mariners were scoring 3.6 runs per game, ranking 28th out of 30 MLB teams. (Yikes.)

Over the past two weeks, though, there has been a notable uptick in run production, and there are some signs that there could be some sustainability to the 14-game improvement.

Since May 31, the Mariners are averaging 4.6 runs per game — a full run more than the first two months, and a third of a run greater than the overall league average of 4.3. (Thumbs up.)

And if we’ve learned anything about the Mariners over the past few years, it’s that their pitching generally needs only minimal breathing room on most nights.

Need proof?

Try this: The Mariners have a 32-5 record (.865) when they score at least four runs. And, again, four runs is just below the league average.

Only the Yankees, at 44-5, have a better winning percentage (.898) this season when scoring four runs.

Questions abound, still, about this Mariners offense, which took a pivot on May 31 after the dismissal of first-year offensive coordinator Brant Brown.

Here’s how the M’s offense has fared since then (with MLB rank):

Runs: 65 (9th)
Home runs: 16 (12th)
Batting avg: .222 (26th)
OBP: .313 (14th)
Slugging: .387 (15th)
K rate: 23.9% (23rd)
BB rate: 9.9% (3rd)
wRC+: 106 (12th)
fWAR: 2.0 (12th)

Add it all up, and that’s roughly average, right?

What about all that is sustainable? Where might the offense regress? Where might it continue to improve?

Here’s a dive into three recent trends for the Mariners offense:

Let’s start with Julio

He’s the Mariners’ most talented hitter and one of the game’s most exciting athletes, but Julio Rodriguez hasn’t lived up to outsized expectations so far.

His .666 OPS through Friday is well below his .833 OPS from his first two seasons, and he had just 12 extra-base hits (six homers, six doubles) in his first 283 at-bats —a staggeringly low number for a slugger of his caliber.

Rodriguez hit his seventh home run Saturday evening against Texas’ Nathan Eovaldi — a two-run blast to give the Mariners a 3-0 lead in the third inning — and over his last 21 games he’s hitting .316 with five homers and an .891 OPS.

Even when he was struggling in April, there remained an air of confidence around Rodriguez, and now there seems to even be a renewed sense of freedom at the plate, too.

Rodriguez, we know, is a free-swinging hitter. He’s determined to get his hacks in, and no one is going to stop him from being aggressive — and perhaps the organization has accepted some of that too. Just, you know, let him be who he is.

He is still just 23 years old, after all, and sometimes athletes need to work through difficult lessons their way. The Mariners are hoping those lessons pay off for their star center fielder.

We’ve recited Rodriguez’s second-half stats here before, and they are worth repeating: In his first two seasons, he has posted a .306 batting average and a .939 OPS.

Mariners fans who witnessed it last year won’t need a reminder of just how good he was in August 2023, and what he’s done the past few weeks is certainly a significant step in the right direction. Is he back on track?

The same question could be asked of Mitch Garver, who posted a .947 OPS through his first 46 plate appearances in June. His eight homers rank second on the team (behind Cal Raleigh’s 12), and consistent production from Garver out of the DH spot would do wonders for the lineup.

Homers help

Through 72 games, it’s probably safe to accept the Mariners for who they are in a few areas.

They’re going to continue to strike out at a (very) high rate, and they’re not going to hit for a high batting average.

Offsetting that is a high home run rate that usually proves to be the difference for the Mariners, who are 32-18 in games in which they homer.

Fair trade?

Sure, in an ideal world, they’d put the ball in play more, but manager Scott Servais would probably live with the 23.9% strikeout rate (from the past two weeks) for the rest of the season. Heck, he might be thrilled with that, and he has been consistent in recent weeks in talking about the incremental progress he’s seeing from the lineup.

The hitters know they can do more too.

“We still know we can improve and get better,” Mitch Haniger said after he delivered a walkoff win over the White Sox on Wednesday. “And I think that’s the scary thing for other teams to kind of see us. We know we’re even capable of much more, so that’s a pretty cool feeling.”

Late-game magic

They’re not sustainable, these chaotic late comebacks.

Sorry, they just aren’t.

But there is something potentially powerful — maybe even magical — about what the Mariners have been able to conjure up late in games lately.

The Mariners’ five walkoff wins are tied for the most in the majors, and rallies can become part of an identity, a hard-earned belief that anything is possible.

And don’t most good teams carry that kind of feeling, that no matter what happens they are not out of it?

“I feel like every time that we’re in those situations, we’re always ready to take the game, especially here in Seattle. We expect ourselves to win those games,” Rodriguez said Thursday, after his ninth-inning homer sent the game into extra innings in an eventual loss to the White Sox.

It’s one thing to say that; it’s another to actually believe it, and the Mariners seem like they really do believe.

The next step? Start to find that belief against an opposing team’s starting pitcher.